'it never does the day of you fucking newfag';

'>>58418915
thats not what you guys have been saying for the past weeks haha';

'>If the halving is not yet priced in, will we see an immediate impact on price once the halving occurs?
No we won't necessarily see an upwards impact on price immediately as a result of the halving, because that would again be naively attributing efficiency to the market which oversimplifies why and how large bull cycles occur. Saying something like the halving is “priced in” immediately after-the-fact, is only a little bit less absurd than saying it is “priced in” ahead of time. As you can see in these charts of prior halvings, we may not even necessarily see gains in the week or month after the halving. Nonetheless nocoiners and bobos will act like this is some huge cause for concern and post IT’S OVER if BTC does anything other than go parabolic immediately after the halving.

>>58418919
I posted the above in another thread. You are some poorfag low-IQ strawmanning mongrel.';

'>>58418926
cope';

'>>58418910
The pump start 6-12 months after the halving. How new are you?';

'>>58418940
>moving goal posts';

'>>58418940
i dont have 6-12 months. you said china and etfs meant we were going to moon.';

'>>58418944
>>58418946
Are you serious? Unless you're in your 60s, 6-12 months is not a lot of time.';

'>>58418949
i have to pay my hoa by the end of the month. my grass looks like shit. i need this.';

'>>58418954
I own one of the most expensive houses on the block and my yard looks like shit. Not my problem lmao';

'The halving effect is entirely psychological. Only the first or maybe second time did the change in supply have any chance at affecting the price to a noticeable degree by itself. Thus all recent bubbles have been caused by the spread of mania/FOMO surrounding the halving, not the actual halving itself.

So will the halving have such an effect this time around too? We already had a rally for the past 6 months, with ETFs happening and people buying in anticipation of the halving. The question is: Is the majority of potential hype already spent on this rally, or are there still many people who care enough about bitcoin to potentially buy, yet have waited until AFTER both the ETFs and halving have happened before they consider buying?

Maybe, maybe not, I honestly have no idea. But I think at one point, maybe this time, maybe a long time from now, the halving will have the complete opposite effect that it usually has. All the hype will have been spent before the halving happens, and so the price first stays stagnant for a long time after the halving happens. And then, disillusioned by the lack of gains that they were promised, people who bought in anticipation of the halving start to sell instead, and we get a big long-term dump during the part of the "halving cycle" that should have rallied.

And such an event would have a big impact on future cycles as well, because no longer can people say that the price have always rallied after halvings. That's one of the biggest hype-generating facts in the space, told to every potential buyer. It's gotten to the point where people are often mocked with ">this time it's different" if they even suggest that it's not a guarantee of future performance.
And so when it finally actually is different, that whole narrative comes crashing down and it will be much more difficult to generate hype for future halvings.';

'>>58419011
This time could unironically be different. First: we already pumped a lot for the past 6 months like you said, check the charts never have we pumped this high on the longterm Btc scale before halving
2nd:The price of btc is high as hell, imagine how easy it was to pump back then when it cost a couple hundo or a thousand.
Now we need hundreds of millions just to break a few sell walls...';

'>>58418940
good
I'll hoard more in that time';

'>>58418954
xeriscape, grasshopper.
save some water, tell your HOA to fuck off.
finally, if you didn't pay attention and really thought the halving was the precise moment for a giant pump, you probably should sell all your crypto and DCA into 3 broadly diversified funds for the next 45 years.';

'>>58418940
why?';

'it's over';

'>>58418910
Look at these fees lol. Does this mean there's a lot of movement but the buys and sells are pretty much canceling each other out at this point?';

'>>58419114
That's mostly unrelated.
Trading happens on centralized exchanges, off-blockchain.
Now this could mean a lot of folks are attempting to move their money on or off exchanges.
But it could also mean a dozen other things.';

'>>58418940
yeah last time it took about 5 months after the halving for it to start pumping like crazy. but even before that btc did pretty well going from $9,800 to $11,800 in the 3 months after the halving.';

'>>58419011
Checked. Couldn't have said it better myself.';

'What's this halfling you keep talking about?';

'>>58418910
It's 7:30 AM on a Saturday. Market won't moon until everybody has had breakfast.';

'>>58418915
I learned this about avax token unlocks. The price is a 1/3 of ath when it should be 200.';

'>>58418926
>it isn't priced in because
>because
>look at previous charts
Motherfucker, we've already had an ATH and came off it. The Bitcoin ETFs have already caused the Wall St guys who, contrary to the average trader pre-2020, have a foresight greater than a week.
>naively attributing efficiency to the market which oversimplifies why and how large bull cycles occur
This means nothing. Do you even know what market efficiency is? Saying that previous cycles were large is saying that markets were inefficient. However, this cycle is clearly different as evidenced by the gigantic fucking hole in the theory of Bitcoiners that we've had another ATH right before the halvening and right after Bitcoin ETFs started operation.
>bit less absurd than saying it is “priced in” ahead of time
Do you know what "priced-in" even means? It's when a price increases before an event takes place. Like for example, a new tax or new tariff will cause a dip in stock prices even if the measure don't take place right away. The term is meant to refer to price action ahead of time, Bitcoin or not. That's the entire concept. But applied to Bitcoin it's suddenly "absurd", because it is.
>nocoiner
AAAAAHHHH the emotional investor. That explains the post.
>>58418940
>implying every Bitcoin cycle will be the same until 2100
2 trillion 2017 USD / coin by 2100 amirite? The graph sure looks exponential from the *checks notes* 3 datapoints we've had. Not an asymptotic growth as the markets learn to integrate the supply with the formed demand. Not a multi-decade inverse parabola. Forget about the copecharts saying we should be at $150k-$200k by now, get ready for PlanC.';

'>>58418910
Fucking told you.';

'>>58418926
Speculators don't understand economics only headlines, hype and FUD';

'Still nothing happened kek';

'>>58418910
What exactly did you expect would happen?';

'>>58420918
The suppply would cut in half so technicly the price would double right';

'>>58420925
Just like when my lumber shop halves its production so I have to double the prices and everyone suddenly buys!';

'>>58420925
why would the supply cut in half, miners and traders are sitting on far more than enough reserves to cover demand. Question is if there is any demand left to cover with everybody and his mentally challenged dog having front run le supply shock, KEKS';

'>>58421420
Are you retarded? You just described a lumber shortage, which has happened multiple times in the last 5 years in the UK. Home construction dropped to nil because of wood shortages. Wood that does get onto the market goes for a premium with construction firms buying it as soon as they can because there's no guarantee when they'll be able to next get it.';

'>>58418910
priced in, slow grind up';

'>>58419391
at least they have to prove in court of law first, unlike civil forfeiture';

'>>58422177
>implying
My lumber mill is far from the only place one can buy lumber, and Bitcoin isn't the only cryptocurrency. The point is that utility and the demand that utility of an asset creates is the one determining its long-term price. If the supply decreases to such an extent that the network becomes unusable (say for example, with fees higher than Ethereum), people can still use any other of the hundreds of other layer 1 cryptocurrencies.
Halving the supply of a supplier in a market only necessitates the price doubling to recuperate costs, but does not guarantee it.';

'>>58418910
nothing happened last time as well';

'>>58419103
That's about how long it takes for miners to ask higher prices when they sell at market. When the halving first happens everyone is still strong enough to withstand the lower reward. But over time weak miners with smaller margins will go out of business and stronger ones will absorb their share. Eventually everyone requires higher prices to remain profitable. This is as they upgrade hardware and just generally face higher costs.
Imagine, your salary decreases 50% tomorrow. You are not immediately broke. But some time in the short run, within a year, you will be, and so adjust accordingly.
Mind you these guys are competing with each other. So it isn't as simple as just "everyone knows what's happening therefore instantaneous adjustment" Like any sellers they are competing for liquidity and there just practically isn't any at 2x the current price.
>>58419391
Please never do that asterisk roleplaying thing again
If we're saying the halving is priced in, are we appropriately priced right now? We see these blow offs because of the coiled spring nature of a sudden marginal supply shock. It overruns the correction and obviously there's a speculative element as well. But always we see it fall back to cost
A priced in halving implies no such regression is necessary. It also doesn't preclude a bullish overrun
I would argue no one prices in halvings because of what I described above, but like, it could happen';

'>>58419391
>>58421420
Kek you're entirely too stupid for me to do anything other than point that out. What a shitty pretense of a reply. Wallow in the mud peasant.';

'>>58418910
>>58418919
>>58418929
>>58418944
>>58420914
>>58420925
kys newfag, you had 15 years. Think about that when you lose your life savings by gambling on shitcoins.';

'Its still 66k lmao';

'>>58418940
>gambler's fallacy
>ngmi';

'0xe11849D4B27f14e835582d7eE56a8d0a5E593283
I'll take that useless Bitcoin and ethereum off your hands bobo';

'>>58422608
>you had 15 years
do you mean it's not going to go up much any more, and it is thus pointless to buy? cause if the opportunity is already gone, that's what you must mean, right?';

'>>58418910
The effect isn't immediate, Noob. I'm just waiting for ETH to hit 15k soon, already planning to restake on Yield Nest to earn amplified rewards';

'>>58419128
ETH would also follow suit because of the emergence of platforms like EigenLayers, where Anons can put their ETH and earn passively. Yield Nest, OMNI, Renzoprotocol, and EtherFi are good examples of these platforms';

'>>58422548
Utility of networks is dependent on the number of users. Bitcoin is the most useful crypto merely because it has the most users. You can try the standard "but muh features of someothercoin" but even fiat works this way.';

'Just pull up the past three halving dates and you will have an eta pump timeline. Usually 4-6 months after halvening';

'>>58418919
>thats not what you guys have been saying
thanks for holding the bags';

'https://www.betmoose.com/bet/btc-to-100k-5984#bets-1
come on bears show your claws';

'>Halving with ETF
>Runes update launched, Satoshisync and Magic Eden already there ready to host the first runes projects
>Record rewards for people trying to push their blocks through (total of 34 btc or 2.5 million)

>Nothing happened';

'>>58418910
>MAGA TRUMP stays strong
>Nothing happened';

'>>58418910
>ngmi';

'>>58418910
Trust the plan, two weeks to flatten the curve.';

'>>58424059
lel nothing celtic, druidic or magical about crypto';

'lmao few days later and still no $100k

BTC maxis your explanation?';

'>>58418915
fpbp';

'well truf came out around the time this piece of shit took its generational dump on everyone's mouths so i guess something good did come out from it this time. time to have patience, watch the clouds and touch the plants for a few months before 100k inevitably hits.';